Epistemic status: I work on AI safety communications, policy, and field-building. High confidence in the core claim that donors should be front-loading their giving. Lower confidence on magnitudes, recruitment strategies, and the activities of existing funders.TL;DR: A large wave of philanthropic capital will enter the field, but it will arrive slowly and unevenly. This means that the neglectedness and tractability of different interventions will dramatically change.

This is a short write-up of work conducted as part of the MATS 9.0 program. We thank Victoria Krakovna for mentorship and Fred Bruford for research management.TL;DR: We introduce a pipeline that generates environment blueprints for realistic scheming propensity evaluations. As a case study, we test how well these blueprints power investigator agents — specifically Petri — in auditing Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview for code sabotage.

Cross-posted from my website.